EIA:美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量及需求今明兩年將下降

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)周二在其《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，由于政府采取措施減緩疫情的傳播，降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和能源價(jià)格，美國(guó)2020年和2021年的天然氣產(chǎn)量和需求將從去年的歷史高點(diǎn)下降。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，干氣產(chǎn)量將從2019年的最高紀(jì)錄922.1億立方英尺下降到2020年的892.4億立方英尺/天，2021年842.3億立方英尺/天。

其還預(yù)計(jì)天然氣日消耗量將從2019年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的849.7 億立方英尺下降到2020年的823.5億立方英尺和2021年的786.2億立方英尺。

這將是2017年以來(lái)消費(fèi)量首次出現(xiàn)年度下降，也是自2006年以來(lái)需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。

EIA對(duì)2020年7月的天然氣供應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)低于其6月的預(yù)測(cè)896.5億立方英尺，而其最新的2020年需求前景高于其6月的預(yù)測(cè)818.7 億立方英尺。

該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)液化天然氣出口量將在2020年達(dá)到53.5 億立方英尺/天，到2021年將達(dá)到72.8億立方英尺/天，高于2019年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的49.8億立方英尺/天。低于其6月的預(yù)測(cè)，2020年為57億立方英尺/天，2021年為73.1億立方英尺/天。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下:

US natgas output, demand to fall in 2020, 2021 due to coronavirus

US natural gas production and demand will drop in 2020 and 2021 from record highs last year as government steps to slow the spread of coronavirus cut economic activity and energy prices, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

The EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 89.24 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 84.23 bcfd in 2021 from the all-time high of 92.21 bcfd in 2019.

It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.35 bcfd in 2020 and 78.62 bcfd in 2021, from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019.

That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.

The EIA's gas supply projection for 2020 in July was lower than its June forecast of 89.65 bcfd, while its latest demand outlook for 2020 was higher than its June forecast of 81.87 bcfd.

The agency forecast US liquefied natural gas exports would reach 5.35 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021, up from a record 4.98 bcfd in 2019. That is lower than its June forecasts of 5.70 bcfd in 2020 and 7.31 bcfd in 2021.

US coal production is expected to fall 29 per cent to 501 million short tons in 2020, which would be its lowest since 1967, before rising to 536 million short tons in 2021 when power plants are expected to burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices, EIA said.

It projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will fall to 4.507 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1983, from 5.130 billion tonnes in 2019, the lowest since 1992, before rising to 4.775 billion tonnes in 2021 as coal use increases.