未來(lái)幾十年全球LNG需求將穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)

據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)9月21日倫敦路透社報(bào)道，根據(jù)行業(yè)高管本周在Gastech峰會(huì)上表示，受亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)，液化天然氣(LNG)需求未來(lái)幾十年將穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，新冠疫情被視為只是一個(gè)短期挫折。

?？松梨谝夯烊粴馐袌?chǎng)發(fā)展公司總裁Irtiza Sayyed表示，盡管世界仍在努力應(yīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)需求和新冠疫情的嚴(yán)重影響，但不斷增長(zhǎng)的人口和能源需求仍支撐著長(zhǎng)期基本面。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源論壇(International Energy Forum)預(yù)計(jì)，今年全球天然氣需求將下降約3%，此后將強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。

隨著世界尋求更清潔的能源以減少污染和二氧化碳排放，天然氣和液化天然氣有望成為通向未來(lái)凈零排放的通道。

切尼爾營(yíng)銷公司（Cheniere Marketing Pte. Ltd）副總裁Douglas Wharton告訴Gastech，隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，液化天然氣行業(yè)現(xiàn)在和將來(lái)都將保持高速增長(zhǎng)，特別是在亞洲，人們渴望安全、廉價(jià)和清潔的燃料。

由于新冠疫情，1972年在倫敦發(fā)起的全球天然氣和液化天然氣會(huì)議原本實(shí)際上將于今年舉行的。明年將在新加坡舉行。

切尼爾預(yù)測(cè)，2019-2040年間，液化天然氣交易需求將以年均3.4%的速度增長(zhǎng)，而實(shí)現(xiàn)這一增長(zhǎng)還需要額外的供應(yīng)。

峰會(huì)上的一些高管表示，由于新冠疫情減少了對(duì)新產(chǎn)品的投資，因此供應(yīng)可能不會(huì)像需求那樣快地恢復(fù)。

伍德麥肯齊（Wood Mackenzie）表示，未來(lái)十年LNG需求增長(zhǎng)的三分之二將來(lái)自中國(guó)，印度，巴基斯坦和孟加拉國(guó)。

來(lái)自印度業(yè)內(nèi)高管表示，今年他們國(guó)家的液化天然氣需求正在增長(zhǎng)，而大多數(shù)發(fā)言者都認(rèn)為，中國(guó)將是未來(lái)幾十年液化天然氣需求的主要推動(dòng)力量。

Poten & Partners公司的天然氣和液化天然氣顧問(wèn)蔡銘表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2040年，中國(guó)的天然氣年需求將超過(guò)6000億立方米，而今年的需求僅略高于3000億立方米。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global LNG Demand to Rise for Next Few Decades, COVID Temporary Blip

Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to increase steadily for several decades helped by economic growth in Asia, industry executives told the Gastech summit this week, with the COVID-19 pandemic seen as only a short-term setback.

While the world continues to grapple with the severe impacts of market demand and the impact of COVID-19, long-term fundamentals remain strong supported by growing population and energy demand,” Irtiza Sayyed, president, ExxonMobil LNG Market Development Inc, said.

Global gas demand is forecast to decline by around 3% in 2020 and make a robust recovery after that, according to International Energy Forum.

With the world seeking cleaner energy sources to reduce pollution and CO2 emissions, gas and LNG are expected to provide the corridor to a net-zero future.

“LNG is and will remain a high-growth industry based on a growing economy worldwide, particularly in Asia, with a desire for secure, affordable and cleaner-burning fuels,” Douglas Wharton, vice president, Cheniere Marketing Pte. Ltd., told Gastech.

The global gas and LNG conference, launched in London in 1972, was held virtually this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It will be held in Singapore next year.

Cheniere forecasts LNG trade demand will grow by an average 3.4% a year between 2019 and 2040, with additional supply required to achieve such growth.

Some executives at the summit said that as coronavirus had reduced investment in new production, supply may not recover as fast as demand.

Around two thirds of the growth in LNG demand in the next decade will come from China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Industry executives from India said LNG demand in their countries is growing this year, while most speakers agreed China will be the key driving force for LNG demand in coming decades.

China’s gas demand is expected to exceed 600 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2040, up from just over 300 bcm per year in 2020, according to Ming Cai, natural gas and LNG consultant at Poten & Partners.