美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)：上半年23家公司提交破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)休斯敦報(bào)道，超過(guò)300億美元：這是今年上半年美國(guó)申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的石油和天然氣公司的債務(wù)總和。今年上半年美國(guó)共有23家公司提交了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)申請(qǐng)，其中有5家公司是在第二季度Covid-19疫情已真正形成時(shí)提交申請(qǐng)的?，F(xiàn)在，隨著新申請(qǐng)案例的重新出現(xiàn)，對(duì)石油需求前景的疑慮也同樣重新抬頭，更多的破產(chǎn)保護(hù)申請(qǐng)將接踵而至。Haynes和Boone律師事務(wù)所在6月份發(fā)表的石油和天然氣公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)報(bào)告中稱，“有理由預(yù)計(jì)，即使未來(lái)幾個(gè)月油價(jià)回升，仍有相當(dāng)多的油氣生產(chǎn)商將繼續(xù)尋求來(lái)自債權(quán)人的破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。”原因是：微溫的石油需求改善和更加微溫的經(jīng)濟(jì)改善。Haynes和Boone律師事務(wù)所指出，在經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)正常之前，石油和天然氣的現(xiàn)狀不太可能出現(xiàn)任何顯著改善。

然而，在該行業(yè)內(nèi)，不同的部門(mén)有不同程度的脆弱性。例如，正如韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)在最近的一份報(bào)告中指出的那樣，油田服務(wù)部門(mén)是最脆弱的。由于幾乎完全依賴上游部門(mén)，油田服務(wù)部門(mén)傳統(tǒng)上是最脆弱的部門(mén)。正如我們?cè)谏洗挝C(jī)中看到的那樣，當(dāng)勘探和生產(chǎn)下滑時(shí)，實(shí)際上提供這些服務(wù)的公司受到的影響最大。盡管上游行業(yè)也受到了2014-2016年油價(jià)暴跌的沉重打擊，但對(duì)他們的服務(wù)提供商來(lái)說(shuō)，情況沒(méi)有那么糟糕。后者被迫降低其服務(wù)的價(jià)格以求生存，這反過(guò)來(lái)幫助生產(chǎn)商限制了他們的損失。

韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)咨詢主管阿林達(dá)姆?達(dá)斯在對(duì)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)的評(píng)論中指出，目前上游行業(yè)也處于困境，尤其是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)。達(dá)斯表示，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣生產(chǎn)商是油氣行業(yè)中僅次于油田服務(wù)提供商的最脆弱群體，加拿大西部的小型勘探和生產(chǎn)公司也是如此。

還記得那些在今年上半年破產(chǎn)的公司所積累的300億美元的債務(wù)嗎?確切的數(shù)字是306.2億美元，相比之下，2019年全年破產(chǎn)的所有頁(yè)巖公司的累計(jì)債務(wù)為257.7億美元。僅在今年第二季度，申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的能源公司就累積了290億美元的債務(wù)——再次超過(guò)了去年全年的數(shù)字。銀行也越來(lái)越不愿意和這樣一個(gè)麻煩纏身的行業(yè)打交道。

在危機(jī)爆發(fā)前，貸款機(jī)構(gòu)就開(kāi)始收緊對(duì)來(lái)自頁(yè)巖盆地的借款人的要求，這是因?yàn)楸M管總體產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)激增，但其中許多借款人一直未能實(shí)現(xiàn)其生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)。現(xiàn)在，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)前景比過(guò)去很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間都要嚴(yán)峻，貸款機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步收緊了貸款要求，不過(guò)，正如韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)的達(dá)斯指出的那樣，銀行仍然對(duì)信譽(yù)良好的企業(yè)開(kāi)放。

在這方面，油田服務(wù)提供商的地位幾乎比其他所有公司都要脆弱。達(dá)斯表示，在危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前，銀行已經(jīng)減少了對(duì)這一行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口，而且在收緊對(duì)仍是其客戶的這一行業(yè)參與者的貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的同時(shí)，銀行似乎還會(huì)繼續(xù)這樣做。

或許合并可以幫助美國(guó)石油和天然氣行業(yè)重新站起來(lái)，但到目前為止，唯一登上頭條的重大交易是雪佛龍公司收購(gòu)諾布爾能源公司，其中不確定性是一個(gè)很大的因素。該行業(yè)的未來(lái)，尤其是頁(yè)巖行業(yè)的未來(lái)充滿了不確定性，這可能會(huì)抑制私人股本支持的公司的胃口，否則這些公司就會(huì)一股勁地?fù)湎蜻@塊美味的蛋糕。

根據(jù)達(dá)斯的說(shuō)法，這種情況可能會(huì)改變。私人股本支持的買(mǎi)家仍可能決定利用低油價(jià)環(huán)境的優(yōu)勢(shì)，這種環(huán)境使許多資產(chǎn)變得便宜。達(dá)斯指出，如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，他們將會(huì)追求能產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金的資產(chǎn)，而不是需要巨額投資才能開(kāi)發(fā)的處于開(kāi)發(fā)早期階段的資產(chǎn)。事實(shí)上，這似乎是業(yè)內(nèi)普遍的看法。

今年早些時(shí)候，Natural Gas Partners的合伙人戴維· 海耶斯告訴《米德記者電報(bào)》：“當(dāng)油價(jià)回到50美元左右的價(jià)位時(shí)，我們將會(huì)再次進(jìn)行鉆井作業(yè)。它將是非常規(guī)的，但它將更加注重發(fā)展?！薄叭魏沃灰幸稽c(diǎn)點(diǎn)勘探的跡象，都不是近期資本關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，無(wú)論是公有還是私有資本?！?/span>

似乎沒(méi)有人愿意冒太大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這是可以理解的：這種情況是前所未有的。

托克集團(tuán)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家薩阿德·拉希姆在4月份告訴《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》記者：“自從人類(lèi)開(kāi)始使用石油以來(lái)，我們從未見(jiàn)過(guò)這樣的情況。我們根本沒(méi)有可以遵循的指南。這種情況是未知的?！?/span>

在這樣的一個(gè)環(huán)境中，小心謹(jǐn)慎將成為所有人——賣(mài)家和買(mǎi)家、貸款人和股東——博弈的根本目標(biāo)。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Faces Another Round Of Bankruptcies

More than thirty billion dollars: this is the size of the collective debt of oil and gas companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of the year. That is 23 companies, all but five of which filed during the second quarter when Covid-19 really took hold. Now, with the resurgence of new cases and an equal resurgence in doubts about the outlook for oil demand, more filings are on the way.“It is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy even if oil prices recover over the next few months,” Haynes and Boone said in its June report on oil and gas bankruptcies. The reasons: lukewarm oil demand improvement and even more lukewarm economic improvement. Until economies return to normal, the law firm noted, the situation for oil and gas is unlikely to book any marked improvement.

Yet within the industry, different segments have different degrees of vulnerability. Oilfield services, for instance, is the most vulnerable, as Westwood Global Energy Group noted in a recent report. Oilfield services are traditionally the most vulnerable because of their almost complete dependence on the upstream segment. When exploration and production slump, the companies actually providing these services suffer the most, as we saw during the last crisis. While the upstream segment also took a hard hit from the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, it was not as painful as it was for their services providers. The latter were forced to lower the prices of their services to survive, which in turn helped producers to limit their losses.

Arindam Das, head of consulting at Westwood Global Energy Group, noted in a comment on Oilprice.com that the upstream industry is also in trouble, particularly in the U.S. shale industry.According to Das, shale gas producers are the most vulnerable group in the oil and gas industry after oilfield service providers, as are small exploration and production companies in western Canada.

Remember the $30 billion in debt accumulated by companies that went bust in the first half of this year?The exact figure is $30.62bn, compared with the cumulative debt of $25.77bn for all companies that went bankrupt in the whole of 2019.In the second quarter alone, energy companies that filed for bankruptcy protection piled up $29 billion in debt -- again more than for all of last year.Banks are also increasingly reluctant to do business with such a troubled industry.

Lenders started tightening their requirements for borrowers from the shale patch before the crisis, as many of them kept failing to hit their production targets despite the overall production boom. Now, with the outlook grimmer than it has been for a long time, they are tightening their lending requirements further, although, as Westwood’s Das notes, banks remain open to businesses with long-standing good names.

Here again, oilfield services providers are in a weaker position than pretty much everyone else. Banks have been reducing their exposure to this segment of the industry for a while before the crisis struck, according to Das, and it seems they will continue doing that while they tighten their lending criteria for the sector players that are still their clients.

Perhaps a consolidation could help the U.S. oil and gas industry get back on its feet, but so far, the only major deal that made headlines was Chevron’s acquisition of Noble Energy. Uncertainty is a big factor here. The future of the industry, especially the shale patch, is highly uncertain, and this may be dampening the appetite of private equity-backed companies that would have otherwise swooped in to pick up the tastiest morsels.

This might change, according to Das. Private equity-backed buyers could yet decide to take advantage of the low oil price environment that is making a lot of assets cheap. If that happens, they will go after cash generative assets, Das noted, rather than assets in the early stages of development that would require a hefty investment to exploit. Indeed, this seems to be the prevailing sentiment in the industry.

“We will be drilling wells again when oil is back in probably the $50 range,” David Hayes, partner at Natural Gas Partners, told the Midland Reporter-Telegram earlier this year. “It will be unconventional, and it will be horizontal, but it will be much more development-focused. Anything with even a whiff of exploration is not a near-term focus for capital, public or private.”

Nobody, it seems, wants to risk too much, and this is understandable: the situation is unprecedented.

“Since humans started using oil, we have never seen anything like this,” the chief economist of Trafigura, Saad Rahim, told the Wall Street Journal in April. “There is no guide we are following. This is uncharted.”

In such an environment, caution would be the name of the game for everyone—sellers and buyers, lenders, and shareholders.